For the first time, JPMorgan Asset Management has incorporated Bitcoin return assumptions into its long-term market outlook, while stopping short of recommending an allocation to the crypto asset.

Bitcoin ranks ahead of traditional asset classes in JPMorgan Asset Management’s long-term return forecasts, with a projected 10% compound annual return over the next 10 to 15 years.

The estimate is outlined in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions , an annual portfolio-planning framework designed to help investors make long-term investment decisions. They project returns, volatility and correlations for more than 200 asset classes and strategies over a 10- to 15-year horizon.

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade. pic.twitter.com/TuOuH51l3c

JPMorgan’s 2027 assumptions put US REITs at 8.2%, US small-cap stocks at 7.7%, US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, while cash trails at 3.2%. Despite the projection, Bitcoin remains outside the firm’s main portfolio framework.

The outlook also assigns Bitcoin an arithmetic return of 20.9%, substantially above its compound-return estimate. That difference reflects the impact of volatility, with Bitcoin’s projected annualized volatility reaching 55%, well above the levels forecast for the other listed asset classes.

US small-cap stocks have projected volatility of 21%, while large-cap stocks stand at 18%, according to the report.

The forecasts highlight a trade-off between potential returns and price stability. Bitcoin’s stronger headline return forecast therefore comes with substantially greater risk, making risk-adjusted performance an important consideration when comparing it with traditional investments.

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This is the first time JPMorgan has set out a range of Bitcoin return assumptions in its long-term forecasts, even as it excludes the crypto asset from its recommended portfolio allocations.

The firm expects economic nationalism, technological change and shifts in domestic investment to shape markets, with geopolitical tensions and government deficits posing risks to inflation stability.

JPMorgan Asset Management expects a traditional portfolio split between 60% stocks and 40% bonds to generate annual returns of 7% over the next 10 to 15 years, supported by AI investment, stronger corporate profits and higher bond yields. Its 2027 long-term capital market outlook also points to greater diversification opportunities as correlations between stocks and bonds rise.

Allocating 30% of a portfolio to diversified alternative investments could lift projected annual returns to 7.5% and improve the Sharpe ratio by 21% compared with a conventional 60/40 portfolio, according to the firm.

The outlook sees AI adoption and investment boosting productivity and growth over the coming years, offsetting some of the pressure from demographic and labor constraints.

JPMorgan projects total factor productivity growth to increase by 50% to 120 basis points, with US real GDP growth reaching 2.1% and developed-world nominal growth reaching 4.2%.

US large-cap equities receive an 80-basis-point upgrade to a 7.5% expected return, reflecting profit margins above 15% and continued technology adoption. Developed-market equities are projected to outperform emerging-market stocks for the first time in the report’s history.

Bond return assumptions have risen as higher real yields and rebuilt term premiums improve the income outlook. Global aggregate bonds are forecast to return 5.3%, the highest level in two decades.

JPMorgan expects US intermediate Treasuries to return 4.6%, investment-grade credit 6.1% and high-yield credit 6.7%. Global equities are projected to return 7.5% in US dollar terms, while emerging-market equities are forecast at 7.1%.