Revenue is expected to grow strongly, but soaring capex and a potential $10 billion legal charge have investors questioning the AI payoff
Meta Platforms is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on October 21, 2026, after the market closes.
Analysts expect quarterly revenue of approximately $63.3 billion to $63.4 billion. That would mark year-over-year growth of roughly 23% to 24%.
Net income is expected to decline to about $15.44 billion, squeezed by two very large line items.
The first is capital expenditure. Third-quarter capex is projected at $41 billion to $42 billion, which would be more than double the figure from a year earlier.
The second weight is a potential legal charge of $10 billion connected to youth social media settlements. That charge is anticipated to hit the quarter’s results significantly.
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Zoom out to the full year and the spending gets bigger still. Analysts project 2026 capex between $130 billion and $145 billion, with further increases anticipated for 2027 if Meta’s new AI assistant keeps gaining ground.
That assistant is Muse, which Meta launched in early September 2026. It reached 10 million downloads within its first 40 days.
Meta’s stock has underperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, weighed down by concerns about AI spending and how long monetization will take.
Unlike some competitors, Meta does not have a substantial cloud business. Its AI buildout has to justify itself through its own products, whether that means better ad performance, engagement gains, or new paid offerings like a potential Muse subscription.
Key items to watch on October 21: whether revenue lands within the approximately $63.3 billion to $63.4 billion consensus range, how third-quarter capex compares with the projected $41 billion to $42 billion, any revision to the $130 billion to $145 billion annual range, and concrete monetization signals from Muse.