Bitcoin is heading towards a second consecutive red October as selling pressure undermines the seasonal “Uptober” narrative. As of 19th October, Bitcoin [BTC] was down 1.35% for the month, while historically October has returned an average of 18.40%.
That decline comes after a September of +6.33%. So, it would seem that the momentum gained during the last recovery period has been fading. While broader market uncertainty and profit-taking may have contributed to the decline in prices, the monthly returns alone cannot confirm the exact triggers.
Bitcoin’s 20.48% June decline highlighted how quickly selling can overwhelm recovery attempts, while August’s 24.95% rebound underlined the market’s volatility.
Two consecutive negative Octobers could weigh on investor confidence, given that Bitcoin is already down over the month. This is in regard to seasonal rallies and makes it more likely that they will require better confirmation before purchasing.
Additionally, a lack of confidence due to lower risk appetite among investors in general could impact altcoins negatively. For Bitcoin to record a sustained recovery, renewed spot demand and improved conviction among buyers need to be realized.
At the same time, while Bitcoin noted difficulty sustaining October’s rally , on-chain data demonstrated a widening gap between retail investors and whales. In fact, on-chain data indicated that retail investors have been selling their coins more aggressively than large investors have been acquiring them.
Retail-linked deposits to Binance increased much faster than whale inflows over the recent 30-day period. Retail-linked deposits rose from $7 billion to $10.78 billion, representing a 54% hike over the recent 30 days.
Whale inflows were up just 9.5% over that same period and hit $4.6 billion. Therefore, the gap increased from $2.8 billion to $6.18 billion. In short, retail investors have been offloading coins at a far faster rate than the pace at which whales may be buying them.
On the other hand, the behavior demonstrated by whales might offer a contrasting view. Between 27th September and 19th October, the distribution trend demonstrated by those whales holding 1,000 – 10,000 BTC reversed.
The amount distributed fell from 62,600 BTC to 5,230 BTC and therefore turned the trend into accumulation. Furthermore, the 100-1,000 BTC cohort has been in accumulation since mid-July despite a decline in their balance of 75,000 BTC.
Taken together, these two trends demonstrate that whales have been exhibiting far greater resiliency than retail investors.
However, if whales continue to accumulate and remain resilient, they could potentially act as a buffer against future selling pressure in relation to Bitcoin. Nevertheless, further retail deposits could limit near-term price appreciation.
Bitcoin risks a second consecutive red October as its monthly returns fell to 1.35%, weakening the Uptober outlook.
BTC whales flashed signs of renewed accumulation as retail inflows to Binance rose 54%, creating mixed signals for price recovery.