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The token's return to the psychological $2 mark is dragging on. The technical picture and the harsh math of coin supply point to a long sideways trend. The current macroeconomic model is squeezing the asset's potential, pushing the timeline for a real assault on key levels to the 2028 horizon.
According to TradingView data, the weekly XRP/USD chart has entered a phase of extreme Bollinger Band compression. Quotes have frozen at $1.3110, running into a dense resistance block in the $1.37–$1.40 range.
The indicator's middle line (20-week SMA) at $1.2514 is currently holding a local floor, while the upper band runs at $1.5997.
The current chart structure fully duplicates the prolonged accumulation cycle of 2022–2024. Prediction platforms, including Polymarket, estimate the chances of a breakout to $2 this month at only 10%. The indicator's math warns that in order to fully digest the current supply, the market will need a prolonged consolidation phase.
The sleepy price chart sharply diverges from the powerful development of the project's distributed infrastructure — both Ripple and XRP Ledger. By October 2026, the network had reached peak fundamental form in three areas: the legal status of a digital commodity in the U.S. fully removed regulatory risks for banks; the integration of Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin into payment corridors organically accelerated native gas burn volumes; and the XLS-66 amendment and built-in AMM turned the blockchain into a full-fledged DeFi ecosystem.
The main brake on the spot price remains the escrow account mechanism. On the first day of every month, Ripple unlocks 1 billion tokens . About 80% of this volume is dutifully returned to lockup, but the remaining 200–300 million coins go to institutional partners every month via over-the-counter (OTC) deals.
This steady inflow of supply against the backdrop of tight Fed rates deprives the retail market of the strength for a quick takeoff.
Only four factors are capable of pulling the price off its two-year brake and breaking this suspended animation:
The implementation of any of these scenarios could forcibly interrupt the prolonged flat. But until macroeconomic triggers or a shortage on the OTC market outweigh the scheduled pressure of the escrow accounts, the bulls will have to adapt their strategies to the conditions of a long wait.