AI compute investment could reach roughly $1.58 trillion in 2027, driving about a quarter of S&P 500 sales growth with debt and leases doing much of the lifting
The S&P 500’s next growth chapter may be written in server racks. A new Morgan Stanley projection puts global AI compute investment by hyperscalers and neo-cloud providers at approximately $1.58 trillion in 2027.
That spending is expected to make up roughly 5% of S&P 500 sales that year and about 25% of the index’s sales growth.
The other notable detail is how it gets paid for. Half of the projected investment is expected to be financed by debt.
The 2027 figure marks a steep climb from around $980 billion in 2026. Morgan Stanley expects the total to keep rising, reaching $1.81 trillion in 2028.
The headline number also counts more than cash. It folds in lease commitments, which the bank estimates will contribute roughly $195 billion in lease capex in 2027, rising to $246 billion by 2028.
Including leases pushes the projection 14% above earlier estimates that tracked only cash outlays.
Oracle leads the lease pack at $57.2 billion. Microsoft , Meta , Amazon and Google follow behind it.
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Across the group, hyperscalers currently hold over $1.1 trillion in pending lease commitments.
If AI spending is a gold rush, NVIDIA is still the one selling the shovels. The report forecasts the chipmaker capturing around two-thirds of AI-related inflows, amounting to nearly $690 billion.
Morgan Stanley estimates that broader “AI enablers” and “adopters” will together drive around 78% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2027.
Goldman Sachs has reached a similar conclusion looking backward. The bank found that AI-related capital expenditure has driven nearly half of the recent earnings growth for the S&P 500.
Data-center leases function a lot like debt-financed asset purchases, but they are not recorded as capex. That means traditional cash-flow statements may understate the real scale of the buildout.
The research notes that high-rated hyperscalers still retain substantial borrowing capacity. They are, however, facing free cash flow pressure because so much of the spending is front-loaded.
When around 78% of projected 2027 earnings growth leans on AI enablers and adopters, the index’s fortunes become closely tied to one investment cycle, and when a quarter of sales growth flows from a single theme, diversification looks different.
The research anticipates capex growth rates decelerating after 2027, even as total spending keeps climbing toward $1.81 trillion in 2028.
With over $1.1 trillion in pending lease commitments and half the projected investment expected to be debt-financed, investors may want to look past headline capex and check lease disclosures and borrowing trends. The hyperscalers’ strong credit ratings provide a cushion for now, but front-loaded spending paired with free cash flow pressure is a combination worth monitoring.