Prediction markets and options traders are pricing in a long, slow recovery for Bitcoin after its 2025 peak
A year ago, Bitcoin was setting records. Now traders are pricing in a 3% chance it sets another one before 2026 ends.
That number comes from prediction market pricing. It arrives with Bitcoin down roughly 25% since October 2025, when it peaked near $126,080.
As of October 2026, Bitcoin is trading in the low-to-mid $80,000 range, roughly $82,000 to $85,000. Depending on where in that band you measure, the drop from the all-time high works out to somewhere between 25% and 34%.
On Polymarket, pricing as of October 22, 2026, gave Bitcoin a 3% probability of hitting $130,000 or higher this year.
For the record to fall, Bitcoin would need to climb from the low $80,000s to above roughly $126,080. That means a rally of around 50% in about two months.
Options traders on Deribit are a touch more generous, though only on a lower target. Their pricing implies a 20% to 25% chance that Bitcoin touches $100,000 by year-end.
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The distinction matters. Touching a level means a brief visit. The odds of Bitcoin actually closing the year above $100,000 sit lower than that.
The current gloom looks even sharper next to what people were saying earlier this year. The CEO of Swan Bitcoin had put the odds of a new all-time high in 2026 at 10% to 15%.
The prior cycle peak near $126,000 was built on strong sentiment tied to inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Then came the correction. Bitcoin slid hard after its October 2025 top, with lows around $58,000 in mid-2026. From the peak, that was a drawdown of more than half.
The recovery from that bottom into the $80,000s is real. A move from about $58,000 to the low $80,000s is a meaningful bounce. But it hasn’t been enough to restore confidence that the old high is within reach this year.
The $100,000 level is the line to watch. It is the target options traders consider reachable, at a 20% to 25% probability.
There’s also a gap between the different gauges. Polymarket’s contract tracks a specific threshold of $130,000 or higher. Deribit’s options focus on $100,000. The Swan Bitcoin CEO’s estimate covered any new all-time high. Each measures a slightly different question, which helps explain the spread between them.
For long-term holders, the signal is mostly about timing. The market isn’t pricing out a future record. It is pricing out one happening in the next couple of months, with sentiment staying cautious and some belief in a limited recovery before 2027.