Eric Schmidt says AI could cut 20% of jobs at large companies, starting with ‘glue people’

The former Google CEO argues automation will target coordination and middle-management roles first, and prediction market traders appear to agree

Eric Schmidt ran Google as CEO for nearly a decade. By his own account, a huge chunk of that time went to meetings rather than to inventing the next Gmail.

Now he thinks artificial intelligence could erase much of that work. He also thinks it could erase the jobs of many people who do it.

Speaking on the “In Good Company” podcast, Schmidt said large companies could see workforce reductions of around 20% as AI automates administrative and management tasks. His remarks were widely reported on October 21-22, 2026.

Schmidt put the idea in concrete terms with a hypothetical. Picture a firm with 10,000 employees. Under his framing, that company could potentially eliminate 2,000 positions.

The roles he expects to go first are what he called “glue people.” These are employees whose work centers on planning and coordinating data between teams.

He grounded the point in his own career. At Google, Schmidt said he spent up to 12 hours a day in meetings.

He described this burden as a “coordination tax.” Every large organization pays it in time, attention and salaries. Schmidt’s pitch is that AI can lower the rate.

Schmidt did not predict a wholesale wipeout. He said certain functions would remain indispensable even as AI spreads through corporate operations.

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His list of protected roles includes invention, sales, leadership and government relations.

Middle-management and coordination roles may be the first to face cuts, according to Schmidt. Those positions often exist mainly to pass information up, down and sideways through an organization.

He pointed to a friend’s company as an example. That firm made a 20% staff cut aimed at glue people, Schmidt said.

He paired the prediction with a caution. Schmidt urged companies to handle these workforce transitions in ways that are both humane and legal as the technology develops.

On the Kalshi prediction market, traders are assigning a 94% probability that layoffs in the US information sector will increase in 2026 compared with 2025.

The information sector covers much of the tech and media world. That overlaps heavily with the type of large, coordination-heavy companies Schmidt was describing.

For investors, the clearest signal is about cost structure. If Schmidt’s 20% estimate even partially holds at large firms, companies that adopt AI tools for coordination could lower operating expenses meaningfully.

For workers, Schmidt’s list of safe roles leans toward people who create, sell, lead or manage outside relationships. Employees whose main job is moving information between groups may want to think about how to shift toward those functions, or toward overseeing the AI systems that take over the routing.

The Kalshi data adds a useful benchmark to watch. Traders expect information-sector layoffs in 2026 to top 2025 levels.