According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin [BTC] is down over 3.5% in October, closing in on last October’s 3.95% decline. With the month approaching its end, attention is already shifting to November. And there’s a reason for caution: In November 2025, BTC fell more than 17%, recording the biggest drop since November 2019. So, could history repeat itself, or will Bitcoin finally break the bearish November pattern?
Notably, ETF flows suggest that caution may already be creeping into the market. As AMBCrypto reported , Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $625 million in daily net outflows, marking their largest single-day outflow since the 25th of June, when withdrawals hit $696 million. It is a significant change in institutional positioning, especially with November around the corner.
But from a macro perspective, this may be more than just random market noise.
According to the data from FedWatch, the odds of a rate hike have climbed over 10% and are up from 5.5% only a day ago. With the U.S. inflation at 3.7% in September, a rate hike possibility may become less of a far-fetched idea, especially as the market expectations change. If the odds climb further, Bitcoin might see another macro headwind heading into November.
Naturally, that brings the focus to the bigger question: Is Bitcoin heading toward another November sell-off like 2025, or could the market break the pattern this time?
Rising rate-hike odds may be signaling more than just concerns over September’s inflation data.
Rather, they may also reflect a growing sense of uncertainty about what lies ahead. Brent crude has jumped more than $117 a barrel for the first time since the 19th of March, as fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran fuel supply concerns. That leaves oil just $2 away from having broken the yearly high. The key takeaway? The odds of U.S. crude prices topping $110 a barrel by the end of the month have surged to a new high of 34%.
From a macro level, a continued rise in oil prices may exacerbate inflationary pressures, which could make a rate hike difficult to ignore. On the other hand, CryptoQuant’s historical data suggests that rising oil prices have often coincided with weaker BTC momentum, and if this trend persists, Bitcoin may see increased selling pressure in the coming months.
In essence, macro FUD could be setting the stage for another Bitcoin sell-off in November.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin ETF outflows imply that some “strategic” investors are already hedging their bets as rate hikes odds increase, inflation remains high, odds of further oil price hike increases and bearish November patterns are back in focus.